tehmasnisdingin

Expectations of rate cuts in early 2024 — aided by a dovish shift in tone from the U.S. Federal Reserve, along with promising inflation prints in the U.S. and euro one — have powered a recent global market rally.

But Barclays strategists say they “don’t see it” and “remain sceptical that the pace of disinflation can be sustained.”

“We caution further falls in inflation will be more difficult from here, especially against still-robust demand and labour-market dynamics in the U.S.,” the British lender’s FICC Research division said in a note on Monday.

“We still see the first cuts from the ECB in July, the BoE in August and the Fed in December.”

– Elliot Smith

MON, DEC 4 20234:35 AM EST

European shares nudge lower as miners, energy stocks sink

The pan-European Stoxx 600 was down 0.3% by mid-morning, with mining stocks shedding 2.1% to lead losses while oil and gas stocks dropped 1.8%.

MON, DEC 4 20233:39 AM EST

Stocks on the move: Nokia down 5%, UCB up 4%

Nokia shares slipped 5.5% by early afternoon on rumors that AT&T may remove the Finnish mobile network provider from its vendor list. The rumor was seemingly sparked by a LinkedIn post from EJL Wireless Research President Earl Lum.

At the top of the Stoxx 600, Belgian pharmaceutical company UCB climbed more than 4% after the European Commission approved its new Zilbrysq drug for adults with generalized myasthenia gravis, an autoimmune disorder.

– Elliot Smith

MON, DEC 4 20233:18 AM EST

A mixed open for Europe

The pan-European Stoxx 600 hovered just below the flatline in early trade, with mining stocks shedding 1.5% to lead loses while retail stocks added 0.8%.

MON, DEC 4 20232:16 AM EST

Here are the opening calls

Britain’s FTSE 100 is seen around 21 points lower at 7,508 Germany’s DAX is set to add around 14 points to 16,412 and France’s CAC 40 is expected to drop around 7 points to 7,339.

SUN, DEC 3 20237:10 PM EST

CNBC Pro: Morgan Stanley fund manager names 4 top stocks to buy ‘on the cheap’

Stocks have faced a mixed environment this year, according to one portfolio manager — but several should provide good investment opportunities looking ahead following a broadening of the market.

When pressed on what stocks make good plays, Dunn responded with four names, adding: “There’s a lot of opportunities out there to pick up really good companies on the cheap.”

Pro

— Amala Balakrishner

SUN, DEC 3 20237:10 PM EST

CNBC Pro: Here’s where to invest $250,000 for the next 5 years

Major changes have taken place in the economy over the past five years.

A long-standing zero-interest rate regime has given way to rising rates, leading to higher borrowing costs — a situation usually bad for stocks.

But the red-hot inflation that characterized the past couple of years is now cooling, raising several questions for investors: How will this affect stocks and interest rates?

CNBC Pro spoke to financial advisors and investment experts to find out how they would allocate $250,000 over the next five years. They came up with three types of portfolios that cater to investors with different risk appetites.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.

— Weizhen Tan

Executives in the cryptocurrency industry called the start of a new bull run with a growing number of voices calling for fresh all-time highs for bitcoin in 2024 above $100,000.

Bitcoin has rallied more than 120% this year, with many optimistic about the surge continuing into 2024.

“It feels that [2023]was a year to get ready for the bull run that is yet to come. But the sentiment is very hopeful for [2024] and 25,” Pascal Gauthier, CEO of Ledger, told CNBC last week in an interview.

Read the full story here.

– Arjun Kharpal

MON, DEC 4 20238:47 AM EST

Afternoon biggest movers: Nokia down 6%, UCB up 5%

Nokia shares slipped 6% by mid-afternoon on rumors that AT&T may remove the Finnish mobile network provider from its vendor list. The rumor was seemingly sparked by a LinkedIn post from EJL Wireless Research President Earl Lum.

At the top of the Stoxx 600, Belgian pharmaceutical company UCB climbed more than 5% after the European Commission approved its new Zilbrysq drug for adults with generalized myasthenia gravis, an autoimmune disorder.

– Elliot Smith

LONDON — European markets were mostly lower on Monday amid an apparent pause in the recent global rally as traders bet on interest rate cuts from major central banks in 2024.

EUROPEAN MARKETS

TICKER	COMPANY	PRICE	CHANGE	%CHANGE
.FTSE	FTSE 100	7554.47	40.75	0.54
.GDAXI	DAX	16759.22	0	0
.FCHI	CAC 40 Index	7526.55	0	0
.FTMIB	FTSE MIB	30403.9	282.13	0.94
.IBEX	IBEX 35 Idx	10223.4	0	0

The pan-European Stoxx 600 provisionally closed down 0.1%, with mining stocks shedding 2.4% to lead losses, while energy stocks dropped 1.6%.

Gold prices notched a fresh record high on Monday for a second consecutive day, with spot prices touching $2,100, with analysts citing geopolitical uncertainty, a likely weaker U.S. dollar and possible interest rate cuts as further catalysts for bullion heading into next year.

The prospect of rate cuts, and more imminently another hold from the U.S. Federal Reserve at its next policy meeting in mid-December, sent the S&P 500 to a 2023 high on Friday following a five-week winning streak. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average in November enjoyed its best month since October 2022.

The upward momentum continued despite Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s efforts to temper market expectations for incoming rate cuts, as he argued it was “premature to conclude with confidence” that monetary policy was “sufficiently restrictive.”

U.S. stocks were lower in early trade on Monday as caution returned.

Shares in Asia-Pacific were also mixed on Monday with investors awaiting a fresh round of economic data on Tuesday, and key inflation readings later in the week.

MON, DEC 4 202310:00 AM EST

U.S. stocks open lower, breaking winning streak

U.S. stocks opened lower Monday, retreating from five straight winning weeks for stocks.

The Nasdaq plunged 1% in early deals while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.25% and the S&P 500 traded down 0.6%.

— Karen Gilchrist

Asia-Pacific markets fell across the board as investors assessed a slew of economic data from across the region.

South Korea’s overall inflation rate in November fell to 3.3%, compared with 3.7% expected by a Reuters poll.

The inflation rate for Japan’s capital, Tokyo, came in at 2.6%, down from the 3.3% in October. Tokyo’s inflation figures are widely considered to be a leading indicator of national trends.

Caixin and S&P Global also released China’s service purchasing managers’ index today, which hit a three-month high, while private PMI readings will also be out from Hong Kong and India.

Get more from CNBC. Breaking news and updates on Telegram.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index tumbled 2.07% in its final hour to its lowest since November 2022, leading losses in Asia, while the mainland Chinese CSI 300 index fell 1.9% and closed at 3,394.26, hitting fresh four-year lows.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 ended down 1.37% at 32,775.82, while the Topix fell 0.84% to 2,342.69.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 shed 0.89% to close at 7,061.60 as the Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark policy rate at 4.35%, in line with expectations.

South Korea’s Kospi dropped 0.82% to close at 2,494.28, and the small-cap Kosdaq lost 1.83% to close at 813.38.

Oil prices fell to a near five-month low on Tuesday on a stronger U.S. dollar and demand concerns, putting the market down for a fourth day in a row on doubts over OPEC+ announced voluntary supply cuts last week.

“The OPEC+ deal did little to support prices and given the (four) days of declines that followed it, traders are clearly very unimpressed,” said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst UK & EMEA, at data and analytics firm OANDA.

The West Texas Intermediate contract for January fell 72 cents, or .99%, to settle at $72.32 a barrel, while the Brent crude contract for February fell 83 cents, or 1.06%, to settle at $77.20 a barrel.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak was reported as saying that OPEC+ stands ready to deepen oil production cuts in the first quarter of 2024 to eliminate “speculation and volatility” if existing actions to cut production were not enough.

OPEC+ groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies such as Russia.

On Nov. 30, OPEC+ agreed to output cuts of about 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) for the first quarter of 2024. But at least 1.3 million bpd of those cuts were an extension of voluntary curbs Saudi Arabia and Russia already had in place.

Analysts at FGE, an energy consultancy, said the additional OPEC+ cuts were below the 1 million bpd reduction the market expected, noting the group was only likely to deliver cuts closer to 500,000 bpd compared to the fourth quarter.

The Kremlin said the OPEC+ production cuts will take time to kick in. President Vladimir Putin will visit OPEC members the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia on Wednesday and host Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Moscow on Thursday.

Russia’s oil and gas revenues dropped in November to 961.7 billion roubles ($10.53 billion) from 1.635 trillion roubles in the previous month due to the cyclical nature of profit-based tax payments.

Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia lowered the price of its flagship Arab Light crude to Asian customers in January for the first time in seven months, reacting to weakening premiums in the physical market amidst supply overhang concerns.

On Tuesday, Libya’s National Oil Corporation said it was on track to reach oil output of 2 million bpd in the next three to five years and was planning bidding rounds for exploration blocks by the end of 2024.

Demand concerns

Elsewhere, countries at the COP28 climate conference are considering calling for a formal phase-out of fossil fuels as part of the United Nation summit’s final deal to tackle global warming.

In the United States, the dollar rose to a two-week high against a basket of currencies after fresh employment data showed U.S. job openings dropped in October to the lowest level since early 2021.

The slowing labor market and subsiding inflation have raised optimism that the U.S. Federal Reserve is probably done raising interest rates this cycle, with financial markets anticipating a rate cut in mid-2024.

A stronger dollar can reduce oil demand by making the fuel more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

Lower interest rates, meanwhile, could increase oil demand by making it cheaper for consumers to borrow money to purchase more goods and services.

In Europe, European Central Bank (ECB) board member Isabel Schnabel told Reuters the ECB could take further interest rate hikes off the table given a “remarkable” fall in inflation.

Meanwhile, major Chinese state-owned banks were busy buying the yuan to prevent it from weakening too much after rating agency Moody’s cut China’s outlook to negative.

The U.S. dollar was higher against a basket of currencies on Tuesday, paring losses from a recent selloff in spite of data showing that U.S. job openings dropped in October to the lowest level since early 2021.

Job openings, a measure of labor demand, fell 617,000 to 8.733 million on the last day of October, the Labor Department said in its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report, on Tuesday, coming in below estimates.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/05/dollar-stems-decline-after-heavy-november-selloff.html

The slowing labor market and subsiding inflation have raised optimism that the U.S. Federal Reserve is probably done raising interest rates this cycle, with financial markets even anticipating a rate cut in mid-2024.

“It just reinforces the narrative that we’ve been on, which is, Fed hiking is probably done. We’re shifting more into, when are they going to be easing? I think expectations are still all over the place in terms of that question,” said Brad Bechtel, global head of FX at Jefferies in New York.

The dollar index was last up 0.41% at 104.03, its highest in a week. Analysts said the dollar’s nudge up was in part due to a reversal of the heavy selloff in recent weeks that stripped 3% off the dollar index in November alone, its steepest monthly decline in a year.

Elsewhere, the yuan held steady in the face of a downgrade to the outlook for China’s credit rating from Moody’s, as major state-owned banks stepped in to stem any slide by selling dollars.

Bitcoin hit a fresh yearly high on Tuesday, above $43,000 – its highest since April 2022.

Cuts priced in

Traders have priced in at least 125 basis points worth of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve next year, with a good chance of 50 bps by June, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

“The Fed is trying to convince the markets that it could still raise rates,” said Joseph Trevisani, senior analyst at FXStreet.com. “I think the markets think everything’s done, but the fact that the Fed is willing to go on about this is giving everybody pause.”

Investors believe the ECB could deliver its first rate cut by next March. Inflation across the euro zone has fallen more quickly than most anticipated, as evidenced by last Thursday’s consumer price data.

The euro was last down 0.5% to $1.0782.

The yuan held steady after Moody’s decision to cut China’s credit outlook to “negative” on Tuesday, thanks in part to state-owned banks that were seen swapping yuan for U.S. dollars in the onshore swap market and selling those dollars in the spot market, two sources with knowledge of the matter said.

Sterling was $1.258, down 0.4%, while the yen was steady, leaving the dollar at 147.26.

The Australian dollar fell 1.03% to $0.6545, well below Monday’s four-month high, after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept rates at a 12-year high of 4.35% on Tuesday.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was up 4.31% at $43,794, its highest since April 2022.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency has gained 150% this year, fuelled in part by optimism that a U.S. regulator will soon approve exchange-traded spot bitcoin funds (ETFs).

European markets were mixed Tuesday as some of the momentum that powered a stellar month subsides.

The Stoxx 600 index closed 0.4% higher, having turned positive in afternoon trade. Autos stocks ended the session 1.2% higher while mining stocks dropped 0.9%.

EUROPEAN MARKETS

TICKER	COMPANY	PRICE	CHANGE	%CHANGE
.FTSE	FTSE 100	7554.47	40.75	0.54
.GDAXI	DAX	16759.22	0	0
.FCHI	CAC 40 Index	7526.55	0	0
.FTMIB	FTSE MIB	30403.9	282.13	0.94
.IBEX	IBEX 35 Idx	10223.4	0	0

Telecom stocks were among the biggest movers, with Ericsson up 4.4% after striking a deal with AT&T to build a next-generation telecom network, while Nokia plunged 8.4% on its expected losses as a result.

Trading in small-cap firms on the London Stock Exchange was briefly suspended during morning trade, which was attributed by operator LSEG to an “incident” without further detail being provided. It was the second temporary suspension in recent months.

Get more from CNBC. Breaking news and updates on Telegram.

The prospect of rate cuts, and more imminently another hold from the U.S. Federal Reserve at its next policy meeting in mid-December, sent the S&P 500 to a 2023 high last Friday after a five-week winning streak. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average in November enjoyed its best month since October 2022.

The upward momentum continued despite Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s efforts to temper market expectations for incoming rate cuts, as he argued it was “premature to conclude with confidence” that monetary policy was “sufficiently restrictive.”

Gold prices notched a record high on Monday for a second consecutive day, with spot prices touching $2,100, with analysts citing geopolitical uncertainty, a likely weaker U.S. dollar and possible interest rate cuts as further catalysts for bullion heading into next year.

Overnight, Asia-Pacific markets fell across the board as investors assessed a slew of economic data from across the region. U.S. stocks were lower Tuesday as the major averages took a break from their latest hot streak.

https://art19.com/shows/4420ff26-c17c-4c28-a654-a663d4bcbf60/episodes/9bdce6cb-3873-4891-aff5-bae21bcc8cde/embed

TUE, DEC 5 202310:04 AM EST

U.S. stocks open lower

U.S. stocks opened lower Tuesday as a recent rally on Wall Street lost steam.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded down 0.3% in early deals. The S&P 500 was flat while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.4%.

— Karen Gilchrist

Asia-Pacific markets rebounded across the region, led by Japan’s markets and following a broad sell-off on Tuesday.

Investors assessed Australia’s third-quarter GDP numbers, as well as the Reuters Tankan survey for Japan in December, which showed improving business sentiment among large Japanese manufacturers.

The Tankan survey, done by the Bank of Japan quarterly, measures economic conditions in Japan and the survey results are considered a key economic indicator.

The Reuters monthly poll is considered to be a leading indicator of the BOJ’s official survey.

Get more from CNBC. Breaking news and updates on Telegram.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 popped 2.04% and closed at 33,445.9, leading gains among major Asian indexes, while the Topix advanced 1.9% and ended the day at 2,387.2.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 rose 1.65%, closing at 7,178.4 and at its highest level since September 19.

The country’s economy expanded 2.1% year-on-year in the third quarter, beating expectations from economists polled by Reuters.

South Korea’s Kospi inched up marginally to 2,495.38, while the small-cap Kosdaq climbed 0.76% and finish at 819.54.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rebounded from a one-year low to climb 0.81% in its final hour of trade, while the mainland Chinese CSI 300 index posted a 0.16% gain and closed at 3,399.59, after hitting fresh four-year lows on Tuesday.

TICKER	COMPANY	NAME	PRICE	CHANGE	%CHANGE
.N225	Nikkei 225 Index	*NIKKEI	32778.53	470.67	1.46
.HSI	Hang Seng Index	*HSI	16032.91	-301.46	-1.85
.AXJO	S&P/ASX 200	*ASX 200	7195.5	0.6	0.01
.SSEC	Shanghai	*SHANGHAI	2957.8	-11.76	-0.4
.KS11	KOSPI Index	*KOSPI	2518.6	0.75	0.03
.FTFCNBCA	CNBC 100 ASIA IDX	*CNBC 100	8305.73	-35.96	-0.43

Overnight in the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 slid on Tuesday as a recent rally on Wall Street lost steam.

The 30-stock Dow slid 0.22%, while the S&P 500 inched lower by 0.06%. In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.31% to end at 14,229.91 as technology shares outperformed.

— CNBC’s Sarah Min and Alex Harring contributed to this report

WED, DEC 6 202312:32 AM EST

Nikkei 225 leads gains in Asia, powered by commercial services stocks

Japan’s Nikkei 225 led gains in Asia, powered mainly by gains in commercial services and utilities’ stocks.

The index climbed 1.9% on Wednesday, with global printing company Toppan Holdings, the biggest gainer, up 10.67%.

Electric utility Tokyo Electric Power Company, chip equipment supplier Lasertec and conglomerate Sony Group were among the other big advancers.

Oil prices fell Wednesday, as investors weighed the effectiveness of an extension in OPEC+ cuts in tightening supply against a worsening demand outlook in China.

Brent crude futures fell 80 cents, or 1%, to $76.40 a barrel. U.S. WTI crude futures fell by 81 cents, or 1.1%, to $71.54 a barrel.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/06/oil-prices-fall-on-china-concerns-skepticism-on-opec-cuts.html

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia (OPEC+) agreed on voluntary output cuts of about 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) for the first quarter of 2024 late last week.

Saudi and Russian officials added this week that the cuts could be extended or deepened beyond March.

But both benchmarks closed at their lowest level since July 6 in the previous session, on a run of four straight days of losses.

“The decision to further reduce output from January failed to stimulate the market and the recent, seemingly coordinated, assurances from Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend the constraints beyond 1Q 2024 or even deepen the cuts if needed have also fallen to deaf ears,” PVM analyst Tamas Varga said.

Concerns over China’s economic health, which could limit overall fuel demand in the world’s second largest oil consumer, also weighed on prices.

Rating agency Moody’s lowered the outlook on China’s A1 rating to negative from stable on Tuesday, citing “increased risks related to structurally and persistently lower medium-term economic growth and the ongoing downsizing of the property sector”.

China will release preliminary trade data, including crude oil import data, on Thursday. Earlier expectations showed China’s refinery runs to have declined in November.

Russian president Vladimir Putin travels to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia on Wednesday to meet with the UAE’s President Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Oil and the OPEC+ agreement will be on the agenda, the Kremlin said.

The U.S. dollar was at a two-week high on Wednesday, while the euro was weak across the board as markets ramped up bets that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates as early as March.

Although markets are still pricing at least 125 basis points of interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve next year, the dollar was able to hold steady as rate cut bets for other central banks intensified.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/06/dollar-steady-as-traders-weigh-labour-data-rate-outlook.html

The dollar index, which measures the currency against six other majors, was last up 0.12% at 104.18. The euro was down 0.29% to $1.0764.

Traders are betting that there is around an 85% chance that the ECB cuts interest rates at the March meeting, with almost 150 basis points worth of cuts priced by the end of next year. Influential ECB policymaker Isabel Schnabel on Tuesday told Reuters that further interest rate hikes could be taken off the table given a “remarkable” fall in inflation.

The euro also touched a three-month low against the pound , a five-week low versus the yen and a 6-1/2 week low against the Swiss franc.

“It’s a reasonably sized sell-off and the market is trying to digest, is it just a correction? Did the market get over-exuberant in the previous weeks? I think there is definitely an element of that,” said Amo Sahota, director at FX consulting firm Klarity FX in San Francisco.

‘A BIT OVERBOARD’

The ECB will set interest rates on Thursday next week and is all but certain to leave them at the current record high of 4%. The Fed and Bank of England are also likely to hold rates steady next Wednesday and Thursday respectively.

The Bank of Canada on Wednesday held its key overnight rate at 5% and, in contrast to its peers, left the door open to another hike, saying it was still concerned about inflation.

Traders have priced around a 60% chance of the U.S. central bank cutting rates in March, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

“Markets have aggressively priced in rate cuts, without any kind of confirmation from central banks,” said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive in Toronto. “As December continues, we need either a change in tune from central bankers or a repricing in markets.”

If the Fed were to cut rates as markets expect, it could result in the dollar loosening its grip on other G10 currencies next year, dimming the outlook for the greenback, according to a Reuters poll of foreign exchange strategists.

The spotlight in Asia was on China, as markets grappled with rating agency Moody’s cut to the Asian giant’s credit outlook.

The offshore Chinese yuan was up 0.18% at $7.159 per dollar, a day after Moody’s cut China’s credit outlook to “negative”.

China’s major state-owned banks stepped up U.S. dollar selling forcefully after the Moody’s statement on Tuesday, and they continued to sell the greenback on Wednesday morning, Reuters reported.

Elsewhere in Asia, the Japanese yen strengthened 0.14% versus the greenback at 147.36 per dollar.